10890 Exchange Rates

Sounds like a typical politician response to me. They always manage to avoid answering a question :yes:

Lorraine

Translation.

Dear Ricky

We have absolutely no ruddy idea or intention of committing ourselves in any way whatsoever, but if we can get away with fobbing you off with an extremely poor exchange rate for as long as possible - then we will.

:yes::laughs::yes::laughs:

Cheers JC..........thats as clear as Marmite

"moved to italiauncovered.co.uk"

It appears Euroland is fast losing pace and rate cuts are expected there too - probably both sides are factored into current exchange rate.
Longer term RBS expect about 1.35 euro : £1 later next year (significant improvement from now) but they have been wrong in the past!

[quote=deborahandricky;101917]Normally If there is a cut in interest rate there will be positive change in rate.[/quote]
I'm not sure what is meant by "positive change in rate". Given the context, I'd assume that the broker meant a change to your advantage, but I'm not clear if you told him you were wanting to buy Pounds with Euros or vice versa. However, given that the broker is (I again assume) British, I'd read that comment as suggesting that a fall in UK interest rates should mean that you might soon get more Euros per Pound.

This doesn't make a lot of sense to me since I understood the [URL="http://www.bized.co.uk/learn/economics/govpol/macropolicies/interest/exchange/interest_rate_3.htm"]conventional wisdom[/URL] to be that a fall in UK interest rates makes the Pound less interesting to foreigners and so devalues Sterling. However, it seems that academics [URL="http://ieas.berkeley.edu/shorenstein/1999.12.html"]do question this[/URL] and argue that the best response to a question of where the exchange rate for any two given currencies might be heading is to shrug and say, "Who knows?"

It appears your money broker is of the latter school.

Al

[quote=AllanMason;101999]I'm not sure what is meant by "positive change in rate". Given the context, I'd assume that the broker meant a change to your advantage, but I'm not clear if you told him you were wanting to buy Pounds with Euros or vice versa. However, given that the broker is (I again assume) British, I'd read that comment as suggesting that a fall in UK interest rates should mean that you might soon get more Euros per Pound.

This doesn't make a lot of sense to me since I understood the [URL="http://www.bized.co.uk/learn/economics/govpol/macropolicies/interest/exchange/interest_rate_3.htm"]conventional wisdom[/URL] to be that a fall in UK interest rates makes the Pound less interesting to foreigners and so devalues Sterling. However, it seems that academics [URL="http://ieas.berkeley.edu/shorenstein/1999.12.html"]do question this[/URL] and argue that the best response to a question of where the exchange rate for any two given currencies might be heading is to shrug and say, "Who knows?"

[B]It appears your money broker is of the latter school.[/B]

Al[/quote]

Or then again,,,,,,,,maybe not ...........hedge,hedge :nah::yes::nah:

I remember the show on UK TV called 'Play your cards right' and I think money broking is just as scientific, "higher, higher or lower, lower" is relatively easy to predict when one is faced with either extreme but when the currency is hovering in the middle it is much more difficult.

Definition of a stock broker = someone you pay to gamble with your money on your behalf.:laughs::laughs:

BOE just cut rate by 1.5%

So there will be lots of these :Dancing_tongue:and lots of these :Dancing_unhappy:

:Dancing_angry::Dancing_angry::Dancing_angry:

If your a saver

The euro hit 1.18 today............deep effing joy

Tell me about it! We are at compromesso and I got 1.21 on Monday. Yesterday I got 1.18!!! 3 cents in two days...wee blue pill anyone?:goofy:

Well it's knocked my (and many other expats) British pension down by 26.25% - that [U]really is [/U]starting to cause worry... Thank goodness I was lucky enought to get all my purchase and restoration bills 'done and dusted' when it was between a 'heady' 1.55 and 1.61. Those were the days!

Tell me about it Carole, tell me about it. The good thing is that although my pension is small I haven't bought an old rustico here to do up, and I'm still young, so work as a teacher. But I must be getting older as the scuola elementare classes are sooo tiring. Hopefully they're happy with what I'm doing, and word will spread, as another morning's work would really be handy!

I suppose that this is a risk that we all (took) take..................if pensions etc are paid in GBP, then it may well go up as well as down...........(yeh yeh stating the 'bl***din' obvious!)
I know every now and then I send £5k over and the euros I get in return are jusr outrageous at times (oh and EVERYBODY wants a slice of the action!).

Where do we get the best rates ?????:eeeek:

I said last march that i expected the Euro to be around the 1.35 mark by July,it was around 1.24 at the time, boy was i wrong.

Now the good news is,that Germany is now is recession ,so surely soon the Euro will weaken when all others follow suit and go into recession, I hope.

[quote=giovanni;102972]Now the good news is,that Germany is now is recession ,so surely soon the Euro will weaken when all others follow suit and go into recession, I hope.[/quote]
I'd like to think so, and in fact my thoughts had been similar to your own in that I'd expected the currency traders to suddenly notice sometime soon that the economy of Euroland is not doing all that fantastically great.

However, reading [URL="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7727399.stm"]this piece[/URL] on the BBC website just now has left me feeling a bit depressed, particularly this bit:

[INDENT][INDENT]"Mr Derrick at Bank of New York Mellon says it is feasible that the pound could hit $1.40 in the near future and one euro could be worth more than 85 pence."[/INDENT][/INDENT]

We're in the fortunate position of that probably causing us just problems rather than huge, life-altering difficulties, but it certainly won't make life any better for anyone living on a fixed-income paid in Sterling.

Al

Noble - I heard a stockbroker is someone who conscientiously invests your money until its all gone!
As an ex-FX dealer I can confidently state that if it doesn't go down it will probably go up.
As an investment adviser you should always spread your risk. Diversify your investments (not just UK bank interest). It is always best to match your assets and liabilities (if your spending is in € your income should be in €, etc...).

[quote=giovanni;102972]..........Now the good news is,that Germany is now is recession, ..........[/quote]

That's good news? - not for the Germans.

.

[SIZE="7"]1.1698[/SIZE]

[SIZE="7"]:eeeek::eeeek::eeeek:[/SIZE]

Yes, but at least the Dow Jones recovered a bit yesterday and this morning (5 minutes ago) the FTSE 100 was rising too:
[B]FTSE-100 [U]+139.67 [/U] 4308.88[/B]

It probably won't be sustained for long, and I think (hope) things will start to settle down once some actions/plans are seen coming from both the White House and from the G8 group. Then - once again (fingers crossed) when Obama takes the reins in January and the world, in general, no longer has to fear the 'knee jerk reaction' policies of the GW Bush era!

[quote=Carole B;103002]Yes, but at least the Dow Jones recovered a bit yesterday and this morning (5 minutes ago) the FTSE 100 was rising too:
[B]FTSE-100 [U]+139.67 [/U] 4308.88[/B]

It probably won't be sustained for long, and I think (hope) things will start to settle down once some actions/plans are seen coming from both the White House and from the G8 group. Then - once again (fingers crossed) when Obama takes the reins in January and the world, in general, no longer has to fear the 'knee jerk reaction' policies of the GW Bush era![/quote]

Ummm - I think the markets have more fear of Obama knee-jerks!

[quote=Charles Phillips;103003]Ummm - I think the markets have more fear of [B]Obama knee-jerks[/B]![/quote]

Dont tell me he has started the way that Clinton finished........more cigars and dry cleaning bills

[quote=deborahandricky;103000][SIZE="7"]1.1698[/SIZE]

[SIZE="7"]:eeeek::eeeek::eeeek:[/SIZE][/quote]
now 1.16430

[SIZE="7"]1.1610[/SIZE]

Will it hit 1.15 ish ...........no bets taken here

so given that the going is getting tougher............Is there a consensus on the provider of the best rates (or does it depend on the day?)?

1.181 today, according to BBC.

[quote=Sprostoni;103017]so given that the going is getting tougher............Is there a consensus on the provider of the best rates (or does it depend on the day?)?[/quote]

The BBC quote the business rate, but the tourist rate is generally 2 or 3 cents lower. Shopping around the usual suspects, the post office online rate is usually the best and if you order over £500 worth, they will deliver free to your home or local P.O. the next day.

or you could use nationwide building society cashcard or switch card. OK only good for smaller withdrawals around 300 euro ,s a time or 600 if you are a couple.
Whilst you do not know the rate in advance,whatever the rate is on that day, you can be sure you will get the best rate and no changes...

looks like the euro is chuging up the hill again,,,,,,,,its 1.1867 ............

Swings and Roundabouts. Depending on your situation these things can balance out.....obviously.

The key thing is that historically the UK goes before Europe and then come out first too. Certainly this has been the case with the house market if I look at Italy. The Euro is too strong and this harms exports and tourism, so I predict a weakening of the Euro.

(on that subject, I have seen an actual 20% drop in sale prices with more then 10 examples I have full info on - plus the truth from a few agents)

When a country cuts its exchange rates the currency value weakens. This is then dampened by how much the market had already predicted the cut. The Eurozone has been avoiding cuts (except the recent credit crisis cut), but once it starts to make cuts it might be seen as an end to an era. Money men may then start predicting further cuts and the Euro will be come less stable.

The Eurozone is far from immune. If you agree......then it will be a matter of time. France just put it off for a little bit longer.

For currency exchanges I prefer smartcurrencyexchange.com as they will do transfer for £3k an upwards. You avoid the tourist rate and charges. The difference between the cashpoints pays for a few pizzas!

[quote=nigelaxis;103317]Swings and Roundabouts. Depending on your situation these things can balance out.....obviously.

The key thing is that historically the UK goes before Europe and then come out first too. Certainly this has been the case with the house market if I look at Italy. The Euro is too strong and this harms exports and tourism, so I predict a weakening of the Euro.

(on that subject, I have seen an actual 20% drop in sale prices with more then 10 examples I have full info on - plus the truth from a few agents)

When a country cuts its exchange rates the currency value weakens. This is then dampened by how much the market had already predicted the cut. The Eurozone has been avoiding cuts (except the recent credit crisis cut), but once it starts to make cuts it might be seen as an end to an era. Money men may then start predicting further cuts and the Euro will be come less stable.

The Eurozone is far from immune. If you agree......then it will be a matter of time. France just put it off for a little bit longer.

For currency exchanges I prefer smartcurrencyexchange.com as they will do transfer for £3k an upwards. You avoid the tourist rate and charges. The difference between the cashpoints pays for a few pizzas![/quote]

I second [url=http://www.smartcurrencyexchange.com]Smart Currency Exchange: The Overseas Property FX Specialist in Money Exchange[/url]. Once you establish a relationship with them they will even do quite small amounts very cheaply & I can zap the money to them electronically almost instantaneously so it only takes "Italian slow-motion banking time:SLEEP:" to ship a payment.

Pip pip

New low for the pound

[url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7777448.stm]BBC NEWS | Business | Pound in another record euro low[/url]

.

Any takers for £1 to €1 soon

Nope - but those with Euro should perhaps now buy Sterling.

My latest copy of Villa & Giardini had several glossy pages with beautiful photos, suggesting Italians should buy property in central London as prices were so low....never thought I'd read such a thing! £1 = 1 euro I'd believe that.

[quote=juliancoll;105333]Nope - but those with Euro should perhaps now buy Sterling.[/quote]

Those with Euros would only buy Sterling if they thought that Sterling would become more valuable than it is today.

Parity of value (as in one Pound buys one Euro) is an irrelevance - it is just another exchange rate!

Sterling will become "more valuable" than it is today.

Of course, you are right Charles, it is just another exchange rate - but one that will change constantly and there is money to be made from it. Lots of money. Imagine if you had recently bought Dollars when it was $2.00 = £1.00 and exchanged it now - money would have been made. Lots of it.

The way things are going, we could sell up here in Italy, change to sterling, be temporarily rich, downsize at auction in the UK, and enjoy again all the things that used to get us down about life in the UK - which are probably worse by now.

Nope, while there is a euro in my pocket we will ride it out here and enjoy all those other measures of richness which count for more than money. Ouch my belt is feeling tight!

Ghianda
[url=http://olivopiegato.com]Tuscany Bed and Breakfast - L'Olivo Piegato, The Crooked Olive[/url]

[quote]I suppose that this is a risk that we all (took) take..................if pensions etc are paid in GBP, then it may well go up as well as down...........(yeh yeh stating the 'bl***din' obvious!)[/quote]

Mah! Some of us don't have pensions - or rather UK pensions - and some of us are paying into the black hole that is the Italian state pension system. Consider yourselves lucky!

For the last year, my personal income has yo-yo'd with the various US - euro exchanges. If I've learnt anything from all the see-sawing it's that I prefer to earn income in the country I live in - otherwise I just can't budget. Wish I had one of those speculator heads, but the fact that I'm an English teacher probably explains my lack of financial know-how... I don't know of any teacher who went into teaching to get rich!

The fx company I use told me in April that the pound would be 1:1 by Xmas - and it has certainly saved some of clients a few bob who decided to transfer their money sooner rather than later!

[quote=Noble;105334]My latest copy of Villa & Giardini had several glossy pages with beautiful photos, suggesting Italians should buy property in central London as prices were so low....never thought I'd read such a thing! £1 = 1 euro I'd believe that.[/quote]

Speaking to an agent yesterday there are signs albeit small that with the low pound properties in central london are starting to sell again as overseas investors start to purchase. However it is only a glimmer and will not underpin the property market which still has further to fall. Unless the banks start to lend again the UK recession will be very deep and the pound will take a long time to recover if ever. I also predict that the Euro will remain stronger, sure the European economy will suffer but in times of trouble investors will want to spread their risk and what better way than putting it in the Euro which is a mix of different economies. Far preferable to investing in the Pound based on a battered service industry economy that has been very badly wounded and has a mountain of increasing debt.

On a personal note I hope I am wrong but we have not seen a recession like this before, so to look at what happend before I think is misguided.

Finally and while I am on my soap box, I used to campaign againt the big grocers like Tesco et al for the way they were destroying our high streets but I can now see that these companies could well be the ones that will help lead us out of the mire. - As I type the exchange rate is 1.117, parity here we come.

My income is in Sterling so I have seen a real cut of almost 30% since arriving here in Italy. It does mean we have to be more careful how we spend what we have but I feel really sorry for people who are in the middle of restoration work who have seen their costs rise so dramatically.

I also think that the property market here will change, in that fewer Brits will be buying and perhaps some Brits who have overstretched themselves will be selling. The problem is will they get back their investment, especially if they need to sell quickly?

- but will they be able to sell Nielo, and if so to whom???

Perhaps the Russians, they seem to be the new millionaires..... But they will only look at expensive properties, not at the cheaper ones which seemed to be, at the time, a good small investment. Anyway, I think that there is less chances of loosing money in brick and mortar than through other types of investments... providing you bought at the right price and did not spend foolishly in expensive renovations which could have turned the property into a "white elephant".

As the post went through I did think of Russia. They hold a International Property exhibition in Moscow every year and from their website there is one Italian company participating, Arcipelago Immobiliare, who are based in Sardinia.

I know of an Estate Agent in Abruzzo who said they were going to participate in the Moscow exhibition a couple of years ago but decided not to for some reason.

A presitgious estate agency has been showing a few Chinese people property in Umbria, perhaps in the next 10 years we'll see more customers from there?

A Dutch friend who lives here went to Holland to shop, same currency, euro, but she got so much more for her money in Holland.
Today a local ferramenta had closing down signs in all the windows.....everything must go....but guess what? NOTHING WAS REDUCED! Is the Italian business mentality at fault...it seems to me that so few are truly competive?.

I'm somewhere in the middle when it comes to the pain. My rental income in the UK no longer covers my rent here, and my small pension doesn't go as far but I am able to take up the slack by teaching English and, during last summer driving a minibus. As an English friend said to me today we are quite flexible with what we do whereas an Italian lady of similar age probably wouldn't deign to do such jobs.

I have mentioned my currency pain to a few people as a subtle way of saying that I could do with more teaching work, and another class or two in state schools would help out no end. Next summer I'll probably try for summer school work in the UK: the problem is sorting out the decent employers, but with the low pound demand should be reasonable as amongst the main competitors are RofI and Malta.

Well - up here on the lake, particularly in places like Como and Bellaggio where it was always 'Americans and British' - [I]it's not anymore...[/I]

These days we're noticing the huge increase in [I]seriously[/I] wealthy Russians up here... and families, all on holiday - not immigrants from the other (old) Russian Eastern Bloc countries. Their hire cars are top of the range Mercs, Beemers and Audi's. I even saw a family in Bellaggio in the summer driving a Bentley with Moscow (77) number plates!