8644 crying wolf

Haven't heard from you in a while Adriatica. Welcome back with your wise and balanced views.

Nice to hear from you john.

Yes prodi has survived for 20 months, when most were giving him just 6. Surprisingly, Italy has performed well in that time, [economically] better than its partners in the EU!.

So you have to ask yourself, what do the voters want? Well it seems they want everything now! Problem is government after government has borrowed heavily to comply
With this sort of stupid, nievity, sooner or later you have to tightnen you belt and pay back,or rather rebalance you economy properly.

But alas that is not a popular idea, so maybe prodi's time is up.... And if berlo gets back in?

Well then the people will deserve what they get,and i for one will not have time for the moaners who will appear down the line complaining about Italys economical mess........
Again,again,and again.

Having been brought up on a [I]WASP[/I] diet on politics, I *should* find this exciting, but looking attlie deept, I see more Widow Twanky, than John Stuart Mill.......shame

From the BBC news

Embattled Italy PM backed by MPs

Romano Prodi has been urged to resign before a Senate vote
Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi has won a first vote of confidence in the lower chamber of parliament.
As expected, the Chamber of Deputies voted by a majority of 51 to keep the centre-left coalition.

But all eyes are on the Senate, where the loss of a small allied party has cost Mr Prodi his majority. A vote there has been set for Thursday.

Mr Prodi has been urged to resign before then - including by the country's president.

The crisis was sparked by the withdrawal on Monday of the centrist Udeur party - and its three seats - from Mr Prodi's ruling coalition, costing the prime minister his Senate majority of one.

'Reprieve'

Udeur party leader and former justice minister, Clemente Mastella, pulled out after being forced to quit last week following his implication in a corruption inquiry.

Three other senators, including the former Prime Minister, Lamberto Dini, urged Mr Prodi to quit on Wednesday to avoid holding the Senate vote.

Polls suggest a snap election could see a Silvio Berlusconi comeback

The BBC's Christian Fraser in Rome says the lower house vote was a reprieve for Mr Prodi.

Our correspondent says there are always shifting loyalties in Italian politics and plenty of phone calls are no doubt being made to try to muster support - but it looks increasingly unlikely the prime minister can win in the Senate.

Silvio Berlusconi, the conservative former prime minister who was beaten by Mr Prodi in 2006 elections, wants to see the premier defeated in the Senate.

This would trigger calls for snap elections, which polls suggest Mr Berlusconi's centre-right Forza Italia party could win comfortably, our correspondent says.

He says the other more likely option, favoured by President Giorgio Napolitano, is a caretaker government capable of bringing all these different sides together to force through much needed electoral reforms, before a future election is held.

I have just learned that Mr Prodi has lost his confidence vote in the Senate as many predicted and I believe has resigned. What do others, far better informed about Italian politics than myself, think will be the likely outcome?

Perhaps, more interestingly, what would they like to see happen?

To be utterly precise, Prodi having lost a vote of confidence is on his way to speak with President Napolitano to (perhaps) offer his resignation.

What (in my opinion) would be the worst possible scenario is that Napolitano will say - well - you got another chance, sonny (and that is on the cards). The second worst scenario is that Napolitano calls for elections. The third worst (the one I prefer) is that Napolitano puts in a 'technical government' led by someone fairly bright and not too politically oriented, gives him six months to bash the cats in a bag which constitute the Italian politicians into submitting to electoral reform. Just about any electoral reform! Banning politicians over 70 years old might be a good start.....

i believe that elections will be called because there is virtually no consensus within the left over who will do what or can do what... the smaller parties are running scared of these electoral reforms because its a question of "loads of money" for each of these political party leaders at risk and they care little about what is good for the Italians but a lot about there own pockets...nothing new in that

veltroni and the new pd want a technical government because he is in the midst of a power struggle with prodi... they are on the same side...but this crisis has come too quickly and he needs time to get more of the centre left on board... hes about the only one apart from cassini and the udc who want this sort of stop gap solution...

i think the favoured result here is new elections... and berlusconi back with an even larger majority although by no means sure

... Gio ... god knows where you get your news from but it is certainly not what is talked about here... more poor people than ever... salaries not enabling people to arrive to the end of the month...schools and hospitals suffering major cut backs...fuel and all services rising in price... even the case where you might look at it from an economists point of view... they always like to see governments reign in spending and balance books is today causing concerns as the EU again warns Italy over spiraling costs and high inflation...low production...OK Fiat has made a profit...

every ones dying for a spending government to return and add some money into the economy... basically i think it might all be worse if the Euro had not strengthened against the dollar as Italy is so reliant on imported fossil fuels that the rises in all things such as electric and gas, road fuels ...and production costs would have hit even higher levels...

we have had the lorry driver strikes over fuel and now we have daily protests in and around naples over rubbish and where to dump it... Italy is a happier country today...for a while as nothing much will change ...but 75 per cent of the population are in a better mood for a while and the sun is shining

Thank you for your posts John, good to see you back again.
A

should explain...seeing as my absence has been noted and with what has gone on elsewhere in this place... that it was all due to too much work and house move just after the new year... just that... today it seems there is a spare bit of time... so am glad to be back too and thanks for the messages...

[quote=adriatica;81261]
i think the favoured result here is new elections... and berlusconi back with an even larger majority although by no means sure
[/quote]

Apart from this bit I totally agree. For me bel seems to be in politics for himself any good that we get is just an accidental by product of his own greed. We are in a mess now because of the laws he bought in to protect himself.

Mark

Electoral reform is what I would favour. The old adage that “if it ain't broke, don't fix it” works the other way too and Italian politics is broke!

Napolitano is also said to be in favour of electoral reform and will be consulting political leaders before making a decision on the way forward. I hope he talks to Beppe Grillo too!

He will need to be strong to resist the pressure from Berlu for snap elections.

[quote=Angie and Robert;81262]Thank you for your posts John, good to see you back again.
A[/quote]

I echo these sentiments. We haven't heard from liketheroman for a while either.....

There was a feature on Radio 4's PM programme this evening in which the author of 'The Dark Heart of Italy',Tobias Jones, outlined the current state of Italian politics. I need to listen to it again to fully absorb all the intricacies though!

Annie.

[quote]... Gio ... god knows where you get your news from but it is certainly not what is talked about here... more poor people than ever... salaries not enabling people to arrive to the end of the month...schools and hospitals suffering major cut backs...fuel and all services rising in price... even the case where you might look at it from an economists point of view... they always like to see governments reign in spending and balance books is today causing concerns as the EU again warns Italy over spiraling costs and high inflation...low production...OK Fiat has made a profit...

every ones dying for a spending government to return and add some money into the economy... basically i think it might all be worse if the Euro had not strengthened against the dollar as Italy is so reliant on imported fossil fuels that the rises in all things such as electric and gas, road fuels ...and production costs would have hit even higher levels...

we have had the lorry driver strikes over fuel and now we have daily protests in and around naples over rubbish and where to dump it... Italy is a happier country today...for a while as nothing much will change ...but 75 per cent of the population are in a better mood for a while and the sun is shining
[/quote]

Spend,spend,spend !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! What a load of crap, its time to pay back!

My info? many sources but if you care to look at the top of this forum site there is a news link. i assume you have seen it in the past, but maybe the brighter news stories do not fit in with the general attitude of doom and gloom.

Over the past 10 months it has carried stories not only of the weak economical mess Italy is in, but how certain aspects of its economy have been performing better than elsewhere! and that has nothing to do solely with FIAT, but never the less lessons can be learnt from them and indeed lesson could be learnt from the situation britain was in, in the early 80s.

You cannot keep spending money you do not have, you cannot have wages that are out of line with the true value of your economy.

And as for your statement "thank god the euro is strong against the dollar"!

I do not believe how anyone xconcerned with the general situation in Italy could use that as somesort of saving grace!!!!!!

What rubbish, the euro being strong actually hits the export market, pretty badly! without a good export market, who can offord to buy enough imported fuel?
Oh yes the government can borrow and get into further debt,oh yes i suppose the people can do that as well! "Thank god the euro is strong against the dollar" ! what an amazing statement.......

It was time that Italy paid back its dues, that government after government has just let pass over it.
So yes i assume the majority of Italians are happy at the moment, but for how long? Till Italy is finally bankrupt. Till the next brave politician comes in and tries to not buy there way out of the mess.....

How amazing is it, a majority of people are happy, without actually knowing what the alternative is!!!

One should never underestimate dott. Berlusconi though. He was furbo enough to see the writing on the wall at the end of his last term as prime minister and enacted a law that would ensure the downfall of the left-wing coalition that beat him - as he privately predicted. The left-wing parties were always bound to disintegrate as there is very little common ground that any of them share. Some want social equality, some want job security, some want pensions, for some it is a specific ideology. So long as there are so many political parties in Italy, the left-wing will never be in accord.

The right-wing parties, however, have one single uniting factor that is shared by all. Money. I could say "greed" or "power" here, but it is a very simple rope that binds them together.

Italy needs to have Berlusconi's law reversed (at the very least) BEFORE an election that will give dott. Berlusconi the reins again. He hasn't got quite so many friends to get out of prison this time, though, as well as having dodged most of the criminal investigations against himself, so who knows what he will do. I am sure, however that whatever he does will not be for the benefit of the "ordinary" Italian citizen however.

I half-expect him to withdraw from the Euro - if not the EU - in defence of his ego. But anything is possible. Controlling the prime source of information in Italy is not something to discount and he is a VERY furbo man! It has even been said that it was he that enraged the left-wing parties to cause the current situation by reminding them that any change in the electoral law would cause the small parties to lose out - both financially and also by the power they currently wield.

Dott. Berlusconi's final act of revenge is that the politicians that came to power at the last elections for the first time will not now even qualify for the very attractive pension that a retired MP or senator is entitled to. They have to be in the job for 24 months before gaining such entitlement.

As I said before, never underestimate the power of dott. Berlusconi!

PS. Now is the time to read Alexander Stille's book, "The Sack of Rome". It really is a very well written eye-opener to the world of dott. Berlusconi for those that don't know much about him yet.

I agree re Stille's book. I bought it on the recommendation of someone here (Was it you Nardini??). After reading it noone could give any credibility to B as a politician of any standing whatsoever. "Furbo" he may be, but only in a bad way!

The really sad thing is, though, that he was merely exploiting what was already an extremely corrupt system, where even the "good guys" were taking kickbacks everywhere and setting up systems to protect themselves

Berlosconi's last government lasted its full term and as has been said if it isn't broken do not change it. The Italians chose to.

Berlosconi is the Italian Branson, he is not a whimp and is not stupid. Is he corrupt? Maybe, but all politicians are and at least he a businessman with a brain (in other words he is not a politician).

I believe the return of Berlosconi will be only good for Italy and the sooner that its people understand that any lefty party can only damage Italy in the world today the better Italy will be. However I am not holding my breath.

Considering the focus of this website I think it might make sense to wonder what a change of government will mean.

1) Tighter residence rules. Just check the thread about Sicily. No way a centre right government would be able to stand against them. Remember it was intially a centre left mayor who started this. Prodi could ignore that.

2) Likely more expulsions. Same reasoning.

3) Taxes? What are the chances that the tax burden won't be shifted onto the lower income workers? Berlusconi seems intent on lowering the capital taxes below the 20% current rate. That money will have to come from workers. What he could do is go after people with residence that aren't filing taxes. Remember the tighter residence rules. You'll need income for residence. Having income means paying income tax.

4) The hand out on ICI last year was cute. Smart mayors will start to hike the ICI levels which won't hurt the locals but will hit the people with second homes.

So how much will home prices fall in the areas favoured by non-Italians?

[quote=Nardini;81335]............ Berlusconi's final act of revenge is that the politicians that came to power at the last elections for the first time will not now even qualify for the very attractive pension that a retired MP or senator is entitled to. They have to be in the job for 24 months before gaining such entitlement............[/quote]

Now that seems a a very sensible idea - perhaps [when he's next in power] he could go one step further and make the pension 'graduated', so you need to be an MP for [say] 20 yrs to get the full pension. They'd still be better off than the man in the street when it comes to pensions

.

as regards pensions the actual beak off point is 2 years 6 months and 1 day... that is the term.. so yes they loose their pension rights if they do not manage to get an interim government set up...one of the reasons a lot of Italians are suggesting as to why the left side of the politicians are trying to insist on an interim government for at least 1 year to get the new laws on electoral reform passed...

it surprises me somewhat that all anyone talks of here is the berlusconi crimes... its a quite naive and one sided view of things...prodi and his family have made zillions out of EU funding for companies controlled by his wife and various relatives ...and there have been some strange goings on also with attempted murders of a magistrate...its basically a common thread amongst all Italian politicians which holds the record for the amount of convicted criminals serving in parliament amongst so called civilised countries... evenly spread between left and right

as regards the Euro being strong... the main rises that have caused disruption to the standard of living of the Italian family have been to do with fuel price rises... 3 times above the rest of the normal inflation since the euro came in and basically as everything Italy produces in way of energy is imported and you have to pay in dollars its obvious that it has mitigated rises in the costs of imported fuels...

however as regards the production side...well most Italian companies have factories that produce outside of Italy...costs here are too high because of the union insistence on permanent jobs and early retirement... the last government backed down when it came to changing the laws and raising the age and voted out the new law that the right had regarding this...due to start in jan.08 and now Italy has a burden of pension rights that no country in Europe can or could support...

so as a lot of italy's production that sells abroad is iconic or fashion based it not really something that will be too affected by exchange rates in that sense... as people to be a la mode seem to regard paying more as part of the fun...

i do not think any politician here is wonderful...i certainly do not think that Italy has an overpaid working population far from it... they have much lower incomes than most other equivalent European countries ... their problem is the costs and the costs are basically to do with their administration both nationally and locally and that protected level of bureaucracy here is sacrosanct amongst all parties...

with the highest wages and the highest number of politicians Italy has a huge amount of tax burden that they cannot meet...instead of cutting capital projects and investment in infrastructure... cut the government costs and get the country running properly...maybe the right will try this... the left certainly not... as the are in possession of the major part of these jobs for life...

its good to talk Gio and i always enjoy your comments

[quote=adriatica;81415].instead of cutting capital projects and investment in infrastructure... cut the government costs and get the country running properly...maybe the right will try this... the left certainly not... as the are in possession of the major part of these jobs for life...
[/quote]

A bridge to no where costs many millions. Which costs would you cut to equal those millions? It doesn't take many capital projects of any size to hit billions. How many police officers do you need to lay off to cover those billions?

Sure they should stop wasting money in Afganstan and other expensive adventures. Those millions could be used at home. But lets remember who wants to waste all that money.

All this reminds me more and more of Giuseppe Tomasi di Lampedusa's book "Il Gattopardo"

[B][I]Se vogliamo che tutto rimanga come e, bisogna che tutto cambi [/I][/B](sorry, accent missing, my keyboard is for English)

Or, basicaly, it is a matter of changing something so that nothing changes.

[quote=Gala Placidia;81419]
[B][I]Se vogliamo che tutto rimanga come e, bisogna che tutto cambi [/I][/B](sorry, accent missing, my keyboard is for English)[/quote]
Slightly off topic i know and apologise, but if you have Windows XP (probably other versions have it, i guess?), there is a handy little tool called 'character map', that by typing in a little code, you can get your accents.

Click on [B]Start[/B]>[B] All Programs> accessories> System tools> Character Map, [/B]you will find your accents, as well as other useful characters like ©, etc

As an example, to type è, press and hold down 'Alt' and type in 0232 (on the keypad on the right of your keyboard, not on top of the letters)

Sorry for butting in, on the joke that is Italian politics, i thought you and some others might find this useful.

[quote]with the highest wages and the highest number of politicians Italy has a huge amount of tax burden that they cannot meet...instead of cutting capital projects and investment in infrastructure... cut the government costs and get the country running properly...maybe the right will try this... the left certainly not... as the are in possession of the major part of these jobs for life... [/quote] I do agree with this sentiment john.

But remember berlo had a decade to do this,and did not,so whats diferent now?
I believe he had a good run,did some good and some not so good.

Just wish prodi could have been given half that time too,and had the backing so he could have tried to make a diference.

What we end up with is this nasty circle where very little gets done of worth.

Just wish it was diferent...and if the events below could be sorted out... welll.......

[url]http://www.italymag.co.uk/2008/news-from-italy/general/underground-economy-said-to-be-worth-549-bln/[/url]

On the morning of Berlusconi's visit to see the President to plead his case for early elections, [URL="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/europe/berlusconi-invokes-mussolini-in-threat-to-march-on-rome-775189.html"]we read[/URL] that last night he was threatening to put "millions of people on the streets of Rome". Strangely reminiscent of the exact same threat that Mussolini made in order to cause the elections that brought him to power. In fact, Mussolini then proceeded to organise exactly that, millions of people on the streets of Rome, so forcing his way to initial premiership.

An interesting (and absolutely accurate) comment in The Independent this morning states: "He was the first Italian Prime Minister since Mussolini to rule for five years straight. Tax evaders and people who constructed buildings without permits enjoyed amnesties, crooked accountants saw their crimes de-criminalised, construction firms linked to the Sicilian Mafia awaited the mother of all bonanzas from his pledge to build the world's longest single-span bridge across the Straits of Messina."

The article, written by Peter Popham, from which I have quoted above can be [URL="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/europe/the-big-question-is-silvio-berlusconi-poised-to-return-to-power-in-italy-and-can-he-be-stopped-775209.html"]read here.[/URL] Mi raccomando!

A point that I missed in my previous post, worth commenting on separately is to elaborate on what the meaning of Berlusconi's claim to be wanting to serve as "Tony Blair" for only 3 of the 5 year term his government would be elected for, leaving the remaining 2 years to his "George Brown".

In 4 years time, the President of the Republic, Giorgio Napolitano, will have completed his own term as president. This would leave an opening which, purely coincidentally of course, could be filled by Berlusconi himself. Of course, he would need the support of his old party in order to be elected, wouldn't he. Not a problem for old (75 then) Berlusconi and his unfeasably large wallet!

Imagine Italy with a Berlusconi controlled parliament and with Berlusconi himself as the President - guardian of the Italian constitution. The only thing left to ask would be if his wife likes to collect shoes...