9672 forecast euro rate

I made a statement a couple of months back,that i expected the euro to slid,and was hoping/expecting it to get near the 1.4 mark against the pound before we went away in the moddle of july!
OK expecting and what you get are not the same,more worrying though is when a bank [RBS ]starts making statements too!
The money players in the stock market love to take advantage of any opening to make a fast buck, this usually is to the deterioration of everyone!

Anyway the last 2 and a half days the pound has indeed climbed by almost 2 cents! ATM it stands at 1.2747 [non tourist rate] and i will be keeing a close eye on it for the next week or two.
Climbs like this can indeed faulter, but it only needs to keep climbing at whatever snails pace to make a dramatic difference in two or so weeks.

Then the gamble becomes,do you take that 2 week high rate? will it keep going up? or will it crash again like it has done over and over again for the last 7months ?

One would expect the pound sooner rather than later to found its more appropriate rate, but nothing is ever guaranteed.

[quote=jonstir;90545]
May be useful to note that RBS expect sterling to recover by mid next year to approx 1.35 euro to the pound.[/quote]

Any chance they could let us know who's going to win the Derby next week while they're at it.

[quote=PAS 55;90567]Any chance they could let us know who's going to win the Derby next week while they're at it.[/quote]
Yes no problem. As a bank, their answer to that would be "the bookies" - who are of course their equivalent in that marketplace.

[quote=PAS 55;90567]Any chance they could let us know who's going to win the Derby next week while they're at it.[/quote]

RBS shares fell today by 2.8% ! Bet they could tell you which horse will come last..

For the sake of interest, we bought euros online through the post office, yesterday - best rate after shopping around (1.22) - and delivered to your home or local P.O. the next working day. No delivery charge over £500 and better rate for £1000 +. Other places will give a higher rate for pre. buying 15 days ahead (but we couldn't wait that long!)

Ciao, Tony & Helen

This does not help with foretelling the future, but may help reduce the cost of exchange transactions.

Banks in Italy are restricted to very small margins on FX transactions, which are normally done at the daily "fixing", or official exchange rate. Of course rates fluctuate during the day, but it is worth checking what an Italian bank charges to accept £, then change into €.

and compare this to how much a UK one would charge to change £ into €
(there is always a spread between the buy and sell rates)
and then charge to transfer to the Italian bank, often £25-50.

Also some Italian banks charge to credit "significant amounts" i.e. over €50,000 to an account!

If you get a nationwide account, you will found they don't charge anything to withdraw cash abroad and also there exchange rate always seems to be good..very good..

We normally pay in a sterling cheque to our Italian bank and as Tim says the rate given is virtually the same as the internet rate on XE.com. Also we can draw on the funds usually within 4 days without any penalties.

This is how the euro rates has gone over the last 5 years.!

[url=http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/currency/convert?from=GBP&to=EUR&amt=1&t=5y]Currency Converter | Currency Convertor for all Currencies - Yahoo! Finance UK[/url]

[quote=Geotherm;90765]We normally pay in a sterling cheque to our Italian bank and as Tim says the rate given is virtually the same as the internet rate on XE.com. [/quote]Hi Geotherm. I remeber you posting about this in the past and I always meant to ask you about it.

I find it unusual that an Italian (or any other) bank would do a sterling to Euro currency exchange at anywhere close to the XE rate - unless a) they are separately charging some substantial fixed fee for the transaction b) the sum being converted is huge c) the client is good commercial customer or friend of the branch manager.

Now, I'm not at all doubting your own experience, and I've never even tried to do the same procedure at my own bank, so for all I know, it may be dead easy for anyone to do as you say. What's your opinion on that? I wonder if you think it would be feasible for others, particularly those who aren't in Italy permanently, don't use the same bank/branch as you, and (probably) speak little Italian?

I just have a vision of you having had to cause a minor scene at your branch initially to get this kind of deal, and I think others should be aware that they may need to be prepared to fight their corner pretty strongly if they want to get the same result!?

Hi Pigro.
I just checked back on the last transaction, which was only for a small amount £1500 on 24/04/08. We were given an exchange of 0.8008 to the £. On the 23rd by XE com, the euro was .803 and 24th .7946. Commission charge Euro 5.00, Spese 8.00.
We use Banche della Marche and just ask for the latest best rate when we get there!!!

[quote=Geotherm;90848]Hi Pigro.
I just checked back on the last transaction, which was only for a small amount £1500 on 24/04/08. We were given an exchange of 0.8008 to the £. On the 23rd by XE com, the euro was .803 and 24th .7946. Commission charge Euro 5.00, Spese 8.00.
We use Banche della Marche and just ask for the latest best rate when we get there!!![/quote]

Thanks, that's great info. So, you ended up with ((£1500/0.8008)-€13)=€1860 after deduction of fees/charges.

From experience, I'd expect the better FX companies to offer within about 0.5 to 1 eurocent of the XE headline rate (depending on market volatility at time of trade) with no fees/charges, so I'd probably have got between €1845 and €1856 doing it that way on the same day. Looks like you got a very good (& convenient!) deal there, nice to hear something +ve about Italian banking for a change, certainly worth considering this method in future as an alternative for funds transfer by FX broker if the time required for funds clearance isn't a factor.

I'll confirm that for many years I have always changed Sterling to Euro (even to Lire) in an Italian bank, and it has always been considerably less expensive than doing it it England. (This goes back to well before internet stuff: the Italian bank would simply open the newspaper and give you the printed 'commercial' rate). No difference whether your deposited a UK cheque or a wodge of tenners.

They didn't like travellers cheques much - but probably those no longer exist!

Normally we are allowed to draw on the deposit within 4 days, even though the cheque does not clear our bank UK for between 10 - 14 days. Another plus factor is that they have an International department, so we just call the English contact there and they will arrange a transfer of funds if needed to pay any bills to another Italian company.