PV Car Port Installation

02/17/2011 - 14:46

I know pv has been covered extensively in the past, but I thought that it may be helpful to post the current numbers and maths that are being advertised here. (Sardinia). This is for a carport installation roofed by 3kw of pv panels. Includes all labour costs, taxes etc. Numbers are based on the current annual feed in tariff (vis a viz expected generation), interest costs and expected energy saving and are only applicable to those who have Italian residency. Cost of carport: €2,500 This has to be paid upfront and is not part of the bank finance deal. Cost of Installation of the pv panels: €11,550 (€3,850 per kw) Feed in tariff received: €1,600 Bank charges (interest and capital for 7 year loan): €2,010 So out of pocket by a net €410 per year (€2,010-€1,6000) However, when you add in the estimated saving in electricity costs (money that you would otherwise have to pay - of €1,080), you are running at a positive benefit of €670 per year. Sure you still have to find the extra €410 to service the bank loan and you have had to pay for the carport structure upfront but both are covered by the saving in annual electricity costs over the seven year period. Net result a breakeven, return in just under 7 years. After that, ching, ching.....€1,600 of feed in tariffs for the next 13 years and lower electricity costs of €1,080 per year. Now, if you refer to some of my previous posts it probably looks like that I have been sceptical of pv. That has never been the case. I've been very negative of some of the more outlandish claims and numbers quoted at the time. As you move further north, there is less daylight sun. Three years ago you were probably talking at around €6,000 per kw for the panels and at this price the break-even term is substantially longer. The ins and outs of cashflows have sometimes in my opinion, been glossed over. Anyway, I hopes this helps as it is based on real current prices and rates and throw out the best "true" numbers I've ever seen. And finally, nothing whatsoever to do with the industry. CB As a ps, I should probably add, that to me the real risk of pv installations is that the 20 year "guaranteed" feed in tariff is not really guaranteed. Its interesting that a UK government minister recently had to deny retrospective cuts in UK tariffs. RBS, HBOS, LLoyds, Northern Rock, B&W all bust without government support and their subordinated debt worthless or trading at percentages in the pound. Iceland, Greece and Ireland on the brink. Portugal & Spain? (Italy?). Look at BP (their dividend) Whats an easy company or government cut to make in times of trouble? 5 year credit default swaps on Italy suggest that there is a 9% chance of default in the next 5 years. Takes this out to 10, 15, 20 years.....nothing is guaranteed. As with everything, there are risks....and rewards....

Comment

.. so someone looking to rewire a place and paying for the installation upfront are quids in... well for at least a few years... :)

Capo Boi - thanks. That is interesting to see some numbers put on it that I can understand!

Capo, we've been thinking now and then of getting a PV setup. One of the main questions we have is how certain we'd be to get the income from ENEL to pay for the loan we'd need to get to install the system. Therefore, I was interested by your comment that, '...to me the real risk of pv installations is that the 20 year "guaranteed" feed in tariff is not really guaranteed...' Do you mean the payments from ENEL are not guaranteed in the sense that when one builds a PV array, ENEL does not sign a contract promising to pay for the electricity generated at a set rate for a certain period? Or do you mean that the payments are not guaranteed in the same sense that there's no guarantee that ENEL will still be in business or that there will even be a functional national electricity network in Italy in 20 year's time? If you do have a contract with the Italian national electricity network, then it seems to me a pretty good bet that you'll get the payments promised. If the politico-legal landscape should ever change so radically that ENEL can simply renege on its contracts with its suppliers, then I'd suspect that making payments for loans of any sort would be the least of our concerns. Al

to pay you. Hi Alan, You sign a 20 year contract with the GSE, Gestore Servizi Elettrici (www.gse.it) where they commit to paying you the incentive for your produced electricity. With Enel it works roughly like this: During the day you produce from your PV-installation and consume at your house. Normally you'll produce more than you consume and the surplus goes to the grid, giving you a "credit in kWh" with Enel. During the night you only consume and thereby creating a deficit in kWh, which you will still be paying on your electricity bill (if you switch as much as possible of your electricity consumption to daytime hours, your bills will be small). And the end of the year GSE will do the annual accounting of kWh credit and kWh deficit on the Enel data and reimburse you what you've paid to Enel (if the net result is in your favour). If you then still have credit kWh you may choose to be paid off at market price (0,09 euro/kWh, hence much less than you pay to Enel pr. kWh you consume) or save the credits for consumption during the following year (recommended due to the above, the kWh is worth more to you this way). This is the 2nd contract you sign with GSE, called "Scambio sul Posto". So you KEEP PAYING FOR YOUR CONSUMPTION to ENEL, and you ONLY DEAL with the GSE for INCENTIVES and the NET METERING accounting. I don't think you have to worry about the contract being voided, more about the Italian way of "giving with one hand and taking with the other", ie. the taxation of the income from the PV-production, because it will generate income based on the PV-owners fiscal status.

Hello Allan, I was referring to your second point. Feed in tariffs are "guaranteed" for 20 years. Whilst I think the risk is small there is a risk nevertheless that these could be re-negotiated in the future. As I said a UK government minister has had to publicly state that there would be no retrospective cuts in UK tariffs. I believe similar statements have had to be made in Germany. Its unlikely, but the financial markets are pricing in a 9% probability of an Italian sovreign government default in the next 5 years. I don't know where ENEL credit insurance trades but would imagine that it would be at similar or higher levels.

Last year we did three PV installations 10.88kWp, 9.33kWp & 7.66kWp. This year we are doing 143kWp & 97kWp installations all for Italian clients - the average costs were €3.00.Wp excl IVA. I would like to iron out a few errors that are creeping in.... For residents under 20kWp installations and which has the best return on capital is called "scambio sul posto". This means every kWp produced by your PV array is feed into the network and you are paid approx. 33cents/kWp by GSE. Further from Enel you are allowed to recoup the amount deposited. This is done bi monthly - so some months you'll have to pay and some months you'll have a credit which will be carried over. Any kWp remaining after 12 months is carried over for a rolling 3 year cycle so you have the opportunity to use this power if you don't Enel will pay you 8 cents/kWp. So in principle you get a contribution of 33 cents plus you get free leccy at say 19 cents/kWp and it is this money multiplied by your annual consumption that pays for the capital cost loan. It works but contributions are being cut this year by 18% followed by 6% per year until 2013. If you are going to do it - do it now!! I hope this helps....??? Larger installations have the same sorts of tariffs but are more complicated due to company accounting et cetera...

It works but contributions are being cut this year by 18% followed by 6% per year until 2013. If you are going to do it - do it now!! I hope this helps....???

Tomorrow the Italian Consiglio di Ministri will vote a decree that in practice will stop contribution in Conto Energia from 2014 or when the limit of 8000 MW has been reached (expected to happen mid-2011, we're already at 7000 MW) with no grace period, meaning that even if you send in the application now and build you array, you will not be guaranteed the incentive, so who dare start? Legambiente, WWF, Assosolare etc. has organized a sit-in. http://www.greenstyle.it/il-governo-stacca-la-spina-al-fotovoltaico-stop-al-conto-energia-2084.html Why this? To return to nuclear, of course!

That's bad news I was planning to put up my 3kw array next year! No doubt the price of panels will decrease if the feed in subsidy is removed, might still be worthwhile for the free electric.

to the UK, which still have good incentives ;-) I don't know if general price level will fall, there will probably be a tencency to opt for cheaper brands, ie. chinese etc.. The GSE put some restrictions on certification which favoured quality brands, with no more incentives the buyer will probably be free to install whatever. Be sure that the case will be followed closely tomorrow...

Do understand correctly that what is being stopped is the incentive - the arrangement which means the purchase price of a kWh of PV generated electricity is greater than ENEL's currrent selling price of a kWh of electricity? Will ENEL still be required to buy electricity generated by small-scale renewable plants? So, if the incentive ends, then I take it that the best you can hope for when you install a PV system is that the amount of electricty you generate over a year will exceed the amount you consume. But, while that will reduce your electricity bill to only whatever standing charges ENEL might impose, recovering the capital investment in the PV system will take a very long time. Longer, perhaps, than the useful life of the PV panels? It would be nice if the silver lining of this cloud turned out to be a significant fall in the price of panels when the subsidy is removed, but I do wonder if this will happen. Have the incentives available in this corner of Europe over the last few years really driven up the global price of PV panels? If every second house in Italy had a PV array on the roof, I suppose I might think this plausible, but that's not what I see around me. Al

..what the government is going to do with the incentives for the coming years. In April 2010 the decree "Third Conto Energia" was published and set the incentives for 2011-2012. Now the decree from yesterday totally undermines this, and the new values of the incentives has not yet been stated. Who has already started building and manage to get connected to the grid before 31st May this year, will benefit from the present incentives and be OK. The incentives will be completely phased out as per 1st Jan 2015, so until then, you should still be able to receive "something" in order to recover your investment. But at the moment nobody knows. Of course it should not be speculation, but the incentives are meant to create this mentality change which has happened in germany, where installing PV is "just something you do". Italians are more conservative than most, afraid on lending money, don't trust the government etc. so it will probably take longer. But perhaps it is good news to the Amandola people, because this is truncating the ROI on many big plants that have not yet been built and the present uncertainty puts everything on hold. Also, it will no longer be possible to build plants above 1 MW. Not that we can be overall happy, my husband is just seeing one year of work on 2 big projects transforming in next to nothing, but that's Italy for you. Berlusconi wants nuclear, (despite Italy voted NO in 1987) and it is all about money and power.